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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.